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Who’s Afraid of Vlad Poetin?

So far, western nations seem all too much impressed by Poetin threathening to use nuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missiles, with "consequences you have never seen" if we dare to intervene or to help the Ukrainians. Widely recognised, even by the Russians, is that by reciprocal agreement nuclear weapons are solely meant for deterrence – if one party decides to use them, this will bring something down on someone’s own head… 

A Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine however — or worse, against a NATO state — is therefore very unlikely. According to military analysts, doing so would break a 75-year nuclear taboo and completely alienate Russia from the rest of the world.

Russian soldiers rest at Minutka square, in Grozny, Chechnya, Feb. 2000‘, © AP Photo, Dmitry Belyakov  

While Poetin’s game is bluff poker, this first threat resulted in a shock wave through Western Europe. People realised war had come to Europe, and many were running for iodine and cash money. The response of both the European leaders and the Biden Administration too wandered away from the essentials: Biden even postponed a long-planned military test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, seeking to avoid escalating nuclear tensions with Russia. Subsequently, European leaders hurried to declare that Nato would not intervene, and Ukranian president Zelensky’s plea for a no-fly-zone was met by hastened assurances… to Russian dictator Poetin.

All in all, I feel this attitude remotely reminiscent of the 1939’s ‘Peace in our Time!’-exclamation by Neville Chamberlain, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, (at that time loudly cheered by an appreciative audience, Chamberlain is now best known for his policy of appeasement while ceding the German-speaking Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany)

As the war against Ukraine rages on, it now seems more and more impossible not to chose sides. Indiscriminate bombing of civilan areas and hospitals and people used as hostages provoked millions to flee from cities and villages. Russian army strategy thus follows a well known pattern: probing with artillery and tanks to locate exact Ukrainian military positions, heavy cannons putting down a barrage from distant positions, subsequently terrorizing populated areas with bombs and rockets from Mig fighter planes flying on high altitudes and ballistics missiles fired from as far as a thousand kilometers. 

And we have seen it before in Georgia, Chechnia, Moldavia and Syria, where formerly rebel-held eastern Aleppo brimmed with rebellious defiance until Russian planes wrought brutal destruction, turning the momentum of the war in President Bashar Assad’s favor. Although Ukraine armed forces surpass everyone's expectations – aided bij Raytheon Javelin anti-tank weapons and Stinger anti-aircraft – and put up a terrific fight on the ground, nothing can be done against these Russian terror weapons pouring from the sky…

Now Moscow is expected to proceed it’s illegal and immoral war against the Ukrainian people by further use of weapons of mass destruction, dropping cluster munition (https://lnkd.in/ezAEAvp4) - or even barometric bombs - on civilian areas. This is what happens now.

A foreshadowing of what could happen to Ukrainian cities